Identity politics: Why the French elections seem closer than ever before

Our analyst Muhammad Faisal Khalil argues that the reason why the election between Macron and Le Pen is so close is that Macron has become more like Le Pen.

This weekly comment was written by Muhammad Faisal Khalil and reflects his personal analyses and opinions, rather than those of EARS.

While Emmanuel Macron won the first round of the 2022 French presidential elections, he is expected to have a close second-round battle against his far-right rival Marine Le Pen. Many believe it will be closer than ever before. For example, while the Economist had originally put Macron’s re-election chances above 90% in late March, now his odds of winning have been reduced to about 3 in 4.^[1]

Identity politics

One can argue that a key reason why the run-off between Macron and Le Pen is looking much closer now than it did ever before is because of the identity politics both politicians share. While Le Pen is known for her anti-immigration politics, Macron has increasingly joined her in blaming vulnerable minorities, especially religious ones.^[2]

In other words, Macron has shifted mainstream politics more towards Le Pen. As French law expert Rim-Sarah Alouane has correctly highlighted, “if Ms. Le Pen looks more mainstream now, it’s because the mainstream looks more like her.”^[3] This observation is confirmed by evidence, which shows that while support for far-right politics in France ranged from 5% to 19% in 1995, it is now widespread, at over 20% uniformly across the entire country.^[4]

Anti-immigration politics

A key driver of this rise in far-right support has been the focus on anti-immigration politics. According to this politics, which became emboldened as France’s former colonies migrated to the metropole, the dangers of immigration are grave. It would amount to an apocalyptic takeover of France by immigrants. Marine Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, infamously warned in 1984: “Tomorrow the immigrants will move in with you, eat your soup, and they will sleep with your wife, your daughter, or your son.”^[5]

These fears now have mainstream popularity. Renaud Camus wrote about ‘genocide by substitution’ in his book ‘Le Grand Remplacement’ (The Grand Replacement).^[6] Michel Houellebecq pushed this theory further with his 2015 bestseller ‘Soumission’ (Submission), which imagined an Islamist takeover of France after a Muslim won the 2022 presidential election.^[7]

Equally, if not more concerning, is how these fears, once pushed by the Le Pens, have shaped Macron’s national policy. Equating Muslim public life with ‘Islamist separatism’, he successfully pushed a bill to ‘strengthen’ France’s republican values. Critics argued that this bill unfairly targeted all Muslims by ‘weaponising’ France’s laïcité.^[8] In other words, Macron was using the division between private religious life and public secular life to specifically exclude Muslims from French public life. Macron’s policy is not too dissimilar from President Nicolas Sarkozy’s 2007 brazenly-titled creation against immigrants, ‘The Ministry of Immigration, Integration, National Identity and Solidarity Development’.

What the future holds

During the TV presidential debate, Marine Le Pen raised exactly this politics of identity. Condemning “anarchic and massive immigration”^[9] in France, she called for a national referendum on who should stay and who should leave the country. Despite his objection to Le Pen’s promise, Macron used the same language of “Islamism” in relation to immigration and Islam.^[10]

The future of religious minorities, French Jews or Muslims, remains uncertain irrespective of whether Macron or Le Pen win. To advance their electoral agendas, French politicians across the political spectrum have been increasingly blaming religious minorities as a threat to the unity, and even existence, of the country. As Rim-Sarah Alouane grimly concluded recently, “Regardless of who wins the election, the far-right has already won.”^[11]

This weekly comment was written by Muhammad Faisal Khalil and reflects his personal analyses and opinions, rather than those of EARS.

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^[1] Emmanuel Macron Could Lose France’s Presidential Election | FiveThirtyEight

^[2] French Presidential Elections

^[3] Opinion | France’s Marine Le Pen Is as Dangerous as Ever – The New York Times

^[4] French election: Macron and Le Pen clash in TV presidential debate – BBC News

^[5] Macron vs. Le Pen: the French presidential election, explained – Vox

^[6] How France’s ‘great replacement’ theory conquered the global far right

^[7] Michel Houellebecq’s new novel ‘Anéantir’ (Annihilate) anticipates French elections…in 2027 | Euronews

^[8] The Weaponization of Laïcité

^[9] French election: Macron and Le Pen clash in TV presidential debate – BBC News

^[10] French election: Macron and Le Pen clash in TV presidential debate – BBC News

^[11] Opinion | France’s Marine Le Pen Is as Dangerous as Ever – The New York Times